There is one question that Cubs fans everywhere are asking, and it is this.
Which is the greater indignity: Having not won a pennant since 1945 or not having won a World Series since 1908? It is not very many sports teams that have two such nonaccomplishments to choose from, so it is best to be fair and objective to both of the Cubs' streaks and subject them each to a probability analysis. To wit: By pure chance -- rather than lack of talent -- would it be harder to go 58 years without winning a National League title or 95 years without being the best team in baseball?
Let's start with the pennant. Between 1946 and 1961 there were 8 teams in the National League. Two more were added in 1962, another two in 1969, a third two in 1993, and the final two -- bringing the NL to 16 teams -- in 1998. Thus, the probability, assuming pure chance, of the Cubs not winning a pennant in that time is expressed by this formula:
(7/8)16 x (9/10)7 x (11/12)24 x (13/14)5 x (15/16)6
Which equals 0.00328, or a 1 in 305 chance of not winning a pennant since '45.
Now, regarding the World Series. Between 1909 and 1960 there were 16 teams in Major League Baseball. Two more were added in 1961, another two in 1962, two again in 1969, a fourth two in 1977, a further two in 1993, and the final two -- bringing MLB to 30 teams -- in 1998. Thus, the probability, assuming pure chance, of the Cubs not winning a World Series in that time is expressed by this formula:
(15/16)52 x (17/18)1 x (19/20)7 x (23/24)8 x (25/26)16 x (27/28)5 x (29/30)6
Which, surprisingly to me, equals only 0.00594, or a 1 in 168 chance of not winning a World Series since '08. It just shows to go.
i sincerely do not know what you are doing here. are you lost? were you
looking for your delicate calico cat, and did you follow her up two flights of stairs
to this room? she is not here. she was here, yes. we gave her a warm bowl of milk, we talked with her about campaign finance reform for a time, and then she bid us good day. i believe she was
going to the post office two blocks down, but i don't quite recall.
for surely you did
not find your way from prinsiana, the least traveled site on
the internet. if you did, though, perhaps you are looking for humor. perhaps you are looking for profundity. perhaps you are looking for answers.
i'm sorry, but you shall go naught-for-three.
