How Perfectly Swell: Helping you pick who to cheer for since 2001.

Well. For the first time since ever, Iowa State has a reasonable chance of winning the Big 12 North -- so reasonable, in fact, that if they win their final two games, they will be the team so blessed as to get to lose to Oklahoma by four touchdowns. A quick breakdown of the 64 possible scenarios remaining for the final seven Big XII North games (and yes, 27=128 rather than 64, but the Kansas/Texas matchup next week does not have any impact on who the North Champion is).

Iowa State: 36 percent (23 scen.)
Nebraska: 23 percent (15 scen.)
Kansas State: 19 percent (12 scen.)
Colorado: 14 percent (9 scen.)
Missouri: 8 percent (5 scen.)

And it's actually slightly better for Iowa State then it looks there, because if Nebraska loses to Oklahoma (which they will), the numbers change to:

Iowa State: 44 percent (14 scen.)
Kansas State: 25 percent (8 scen.)
Colorado: 13 percent (4 scen.)
Nebraska: 9 percent (3 scen.)
Missouri: 9 percent (3 scen.)


Conversely, if Nebraska somehow beats Oklahoma:

Nebraska: 38 percent (12 scen.)
Iowa State: 28 percent (9 scen.)
Colorado: 16 percent (5 scen.)
Kansas State: 13 percent (4 scen.)
Missouri: 6 percent (2 scen.)

So, go Oklahoma!

Assuming Oklahoma beats Nebraska, the Colorado/Kansas State game has no impact on Iowa State's chances, so cheer for whomever you want.

More specifically, Iowa State will win the Big XII North iff:

a) Iowa State wins its final two games, finishing 5-3 in the Big XII, or
b) Iowa State and Nebraska both finish the year 4-4 in the Big XII, but no other team finishes 4-4, or
c) Iowa State finishes 4-4 in the Big XII, but no other team finishes higher than 3-5 (yes, it's possible), or
d) Iowa State beats Kansas State, Missouri beats Iowa State, Oklahoma beats Nebraska, Nebraska beats Colorado, Colorado beats Kansas State, and Missouri beats Kansas, which leaves Iowa State, Nebraska, and Missouri all at 4-4, a tie that ISU wins on the third tiebreaker. (There is also a scenario where Iowa State, Nebraska, and Missouri are all at 4-4 and Nebraska wins the tiebreaker, along with a scenario where Missouri wins the tiebreaker. Yes, is very it confusing.)

I am sure you all care.

oh so lovingly written byMatthew |  these are comments, absent.


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